Cleveland-Akron-Canton Metrics
Six goals to beat projections.
This is how we hold ourselves accountable
Northeast Ohio's economy is growing, but the region isn't the only one competing for jobs, investment, and talent. The opportunity ahead is to grow faster: align investment in talent, equity, resilience, and innovation, and the region can change its trajectory. Here, we present six key metrics that will let us know if we're bending the curve. We aim to do it by 2030.
THE GOALS
Six goals. One region.
Six aspirational goals for economic growth across the region, set to hold Northeast Ohio accountable for the investment it takes to get there. The six goals below show where we stand today, and the target we're holding ourselves to by 2030.
-
Goal 01 Competitive
The commitment
Grow regional GDP faster than the current trend.
Today
$298.9B
2024
2030 target
$337.7B
+$38.9B
GDP is the size of the regional pie. The bend-the-curve target lands halfway between the state and national projections, about $7.1 billion beyond the current trend by 2030.
-
Goal 02 Competitive
The commitment
Hold total employment at its 2024 level.
Today
1.87M
Total employment, 2024
2030 target
1.87M
Holds the 2024 level
Retirements are outpacing new entrants to the workforce. Without a shift, total employment slips to 1.85 million by 2030. Holding employment at 1.87 million through 2030 means filling about 22,000 more jobs than projected.
-
Goal 03 Innovation
The commitment
Grow output per worker in step with GDP.
Today
$160K
Output per worker, 2024
2030 target
$181K
+13% over 2024
Even in the face of demographic challenges, Northeast Ohio companies have continued to drive GDP growth by focusing on capital investment, technology adoption, innovation, and exportable good and services that help the region generate more output per worker.
-
Goal 04 Talent
The commitment
Slow the decline of early-career residents ages 25-34.
Today
476,869
Ages 25–34, 2024
2030 target
470,659
Slows the projected decline
The goal is to keep more residents ages 25 to 34 in Northeast Ohio through 2030. That cohort is projected to shrink faster than the state overall. Matching the state's slower decline instead of the region's steeper trend keeps roughly 12,000 more people in this age group here by 2030.
-
Goal 05 Competitive
The commitment
Lift per-capita income to the state's trajectory.
Today
$39,870
Per-capita income, 2024
2030 target
$53,426
+34% over 2024
The goal is to raise per-capita income for the people who already live here. Matching the state's wage projection puts per-capita income about $850 a person beyond the current trend by 2030.
-
Goal 06 Prosperity
The commitment
Close the gap to the national poverty rate.
Today
12.9%
Poverty rate, 2024
2030 target
12.5%
Matches current US rate
By 2030, the gap between Northeast Ohio's poverty rate and the national rate should be closed. The region sits just above the national average today. Getting there means the gains reach the neighborhoods that need them most, through family-sustaining wages and the supports that make work pay.
Baselines reflect 2024 actuals; 2030 targets are Team NEO's confirmed bend-the-curve goals (Performance Indicators, June 2026).
Bending the curve
Six indicators. Three futures each.
The regional scoreboard tracks six indicators, one at a time. Each chart holds three lines: where we are, where the current trend takes us, and where the region could land by 2030 with the right investment in workforce, innovation, and infrastructure.
- Historical (actual)
- Current trend
- Bending the curve
-
Indicator 01 of 06
Regional GDP
-
Today
$298.9B
Northeast Ohio produced $298.9 billion in goods and services in 2024—up from $278 billion in 2018.
-
If the current trend holds
$330.6B by 2030
Holding the region's current growth path lands GDP near $330.6 billion by 2030—a 10.6% gain, but a step behind faster-growing metros.
-
Bending the curve
$337.7B by 2030
Bending the curve to land halfway between the state and national projections reaches $337.7 billion—13% above today, roughly $7 billion beyond the trend.
What it takes Greater business investment, stronger innovation and R&D growth, and expansion of exports and traded sector activity.
-
-
Indicator 02 of 06
Total Employment
-
Today
1.87M
1.87 million people work in Northeast Ohio today. Employment fell sharply in 2020 and hasn't fully recovered to the 1.9 million working here in 2018.
-
If the current trend holds
1.85M by 2030
On the current trajectory total employment slips about 1.2% to 1.85 million by 2030, as retirements outpace new entrants to the workforce.
-
Bending the curve
1.87M by 2030
Bending the curve here means holding the line — keeping employment at its 2024 level of 1.87 million, roughly 22,000 jobs above the trend.
What it takes Better alignment between training and employer demand, stronger talent pipelines, and addressing barriers to workforce participation.
-
-
Indicator 03 of 06
Productivity per Worker
-
Today
$160,041
Each worker generated about $160,041 in output in 2024, up from roughly $147,000 in 2018.
-
If the current trend holds
$179,098 by 2030
Current productivity gains carry output per worker to $179,098 by 2030, an 11.9% increase over today.
-
Bending the curve
$180,847 by 2030
Bending the curve ties productivity growth to GDP growth, both a 13% gain by 2030. Output per worker reaches $180,847, up from $160,041 today.
What it takes Automation that augments skilled labor rather than replacing it. Capital investment in the region's manufacturing base. Training that moves people into higher-skilled, higher-paying roles.
-
-
Indicator 04 of 06
Per-capita Income
-
Today
$39,870
Per-capita income climbed from $30,236 in 2018 to $39,870 in 2024, a 32% increase over six years (before adjusting for inflation).
-
If the current trend holds
$52,574 by 2030
Extending the region's recent wage growth lands per-capita income at $52,574 by 2030, another 32% climb from today.
-
Bending the curve
$53,426 by 2030
Matching the state's wage projection will mean the region reaches $53,426 by 2030, 34% above today and about $850 per person beyond the trend.
What it takes Making sure productivity gains reach paychecks and not just profit margins, and growth in higher-paying industries.
-
-
Indicator 05 of 06
Population Ages 25–34
-
Today
476,869
476,869 residents ages 25-34 live in Northeast Ohio today, a peer group in the early stages of long careers and family decisions that shape the region for decades.
-
If the current trend holds
458,635 by 2030
On the current path, this cohort declines 3.8% to 458,635 by 2030, shrinking the pool of 25–34-year-olds living in the region.
-
Bending the curve
470,659 by 2030
Bending the curve slows the decline to match the state's overall trajectory, keeping the group at 470,659 by 2030, about 12,000 more people ages 25-34 than the region's current population trend would produce.
What it takes Housing, amenities, and career pathways that make staying or moving here an easy choice for recent local graduates and young families.
-
-
Indicator 06 of 06
Poverty Rate
-
Today
12.9%
12.9% of Northeast Ohioans lived below the poverty line in 2024, down from a 2022 peak of 14.1%.
-
If the current trend holds
12.8% by 2030
On the current trend, poverty barely moves, easing only to 12.8% by 2030.
-
Bending the curve
12.5% by 2030
Bending the curve closes the gap to the current U.S. poverty rate, reaching 12.5% by 2030.
What it takes Family-sustaining wages and the support, childcare, transit, and pathways out of low-wage work that let people keep more of what they earn.
-
2030 targets designed by Team NEO Research. Historical data sourced from Lightcast, U.S. Census Bureau, and Moody's Analytics.
We are seeing encouraging gains in productivity across Northeast Ohio, even as employment and population growth present challenges. Bending the curve, or changing the trajectory of our economy, will require us to turn that strength into broader momentum by attracting talent, expanding opportunity, and advancing a more vibrant economy for all.
Go deeper
Need the numbers behind a goal?
The six goals above are the headline numbers. The Vibrant Economy Indicators are what's underneath them, more than 600 data points, benchmarked against 12 peer regions. See what's driving each one, and where investment can move the needle fastest. For the full dataset or the indicators behind any goal above, talk to the Team NEO research team.